High Use of Ozempic and Other Diabetes Drugs for Weight Loss Driving Down Clothing Sizes In New York City, According to New Study

NEW YORK, June 17, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The effects of the increasing use of GLP-1 diabetes drugs including Ozempic and Wegovy for weight loss has triggered an expensive problem for retailers: incorrect size curves. Impact Analytics, an AI-based retail planning and forecasting company, announced today that size small has become the most popular size for women on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, the epicenter of non-diabetic use of GLP-1 drugs. Compared to 2022, sales of women’s button-down shirts in small sizes (XXS, XS, and S) has increased in 2024 by 12%; and sales of large sizes (XXL, XL, and L) has decreased by nearly 11% (10.9%). This data has broad bottom-line implications for high-end clothing retailers that primarily serve women over the age of 30 in urban areas.

“The slimming down of America will have an enormous impact on retailers and could cost them approximately $20 million each year due to incorrect size curves. These losses will only accelerate as more people take GLP-1 drugs for weight loss,” said Prashant Agrawal, Founder and Chief Executive Officer at Impact Analytics. “Retailers generally make buying decisions for upcoming seasons at least six months in advance, and if this impact to the curve isn’t addressed, it will have ramifications on retail sales that will extend well into the holiday season and beyond.”

New York City leads the world not only in fashion but also in GLP-1 drug usage. Nearly 44% of the city’s GLP-1 prescriptions go to New Yorkers who do not have a Type 2 diabetes diagnosis. This demographic skews younger and nearly 75% are female. Impact Analytics observed that the GLP-1 drug prescriptions in New York City coalesce in the affluent neighborhood of Manhattan’s Upper East Side. This usage concentration provided a unique opportunity to examine its retail impact.

The Impact Analytics data scientists examined multi-year sales from 2022 to 2024 at flagship stores of fashion apparel retailers prominently situated on NYC’s Upper East Side. In 2022, sales of women’s button-down shirts in size small (S) were 25% of sales and have increased in 2024 to 31% of sales. A similar shift in the size curve was seen across women’s and men’s apparel. This data spurred Impact Analytics to focus their analysis on shifts in clothing size curves, which reflect both the absolute and relative amounts of particular apparel sizes bought by consumers. Shifting size curves indicate a change in customers’ body sizes.

“Most retailers have clung to the same size curves for years despite evidence suggesting their inaccuracy,” said Agrawal. “The impact of that will continue to erode retailer margin integrity unless immediate action is taken to update them.”

Size curves are specific to each product type and influence which sizes are included in the assortment as well as the quantity of each size ordered. Poor size curves directly impact the buying and allocation processes, resulting in lost sales due to stockouts and excesses in inventories that are subsequently marked down. For a billion-dollar business, over the next five to ten years, even a 2 percent transition to lower sizes can significantly impact profitability, potentially turning margins negative. This could result in a reduction of tens of millions of dollars.

For more information, download the full report here.