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Americans Expected to Reduce Calorie Intake by Trillions as GLP-1 Usage Rises, According to New Study
Impact Analytics Study Reveals Surge in Healthy Food Sales, with Midwest States Seeing the Most Significant Impact
New York, NY—October 9, 2024—Calorie consumption is expected to decline by approximately 10 trillion kcal annually across the US’s adult population by 2030, according to a new report by Impact Analytics™, the pioneer in AI-powered planning, promotional, and pricing solutions for the retail, grocery, manufacturing, and CPG industries. The study also finds that healthy food categories have increased by 5-8.7% in overall unit sales across the U.S. year-over-year (2022-2023, 2023-2024). Regionally, stores in states across the Midwest have seen the highest growth in healthy food sales, between 10 and 22% on average, while the Northeast has shown the most pronounced shift away from unhealthy options, with a reduction by between 0.5 and 5%.
Demand is forecast to increase for fresh produce and organic products, plant-based offerings, dairy alternatives, and protein substitutes and has already shown growth in sales. Fresh fruits have seen a 12.4% increase in unit sales growth year-over-year (2023-2024), while fresh vegetables have seen a 9.2% increase in sales growth over the same period.
“With GLP-1 usage for weight loss rising rapidly and calorie consumption in the U.S. expected to decline for the first time since the 1960s, healthier food sales will continue to accelerate,” said Prashant Agrawal, Founder and CEO, Impact Analytics. “Many grocers are already seeing these shifts with higher revenue growth and increased unit sales. As many industries and sectors across the country grapple in various ways with GLP-1-driven changes in both the sizes and appetites of Americans, grocers will be on the front line of this transformation and should be prepared with new buying, pricing, and inventory strategies. This trending shift towards healthier options and distaste for unhealthy, processed foods, will change the way grocers merchandise their shelf space.”
As more people adopt a healthier lifestyle, total calorie consumption is expected to decline for the first time since the 1960s. Today, the average person in the U.S. consumes 3,600 calories per day. According to the forecast by Impact Analytics, that number is expected to decrease by 2030 to between 2,800 and 3,500, resulting in a nearly 10 trillion kcal reduction across most of the adult population in the U.S.
Download Report: Trillions of Calories to Be Cut by 2030
For the first time since the 1960s, global trends point to a dramatic calorie reduction, with trillions of calories projected to be cut by 2030. Discover the transformative forces behind this shift and what it means for the future of the grocery sector.
ABOUT IMPACT ANALYTICS
Impact Analytics offers a holistic suite of solutions to help retailers and brands future-proof their businesses using predictive analytics. With tools for planning, forecasting, merchandising and pricing, Impact Analytics enables retailers to make smart data-based decisions rather than relying on last year’s figures to forecast and plan this year’s business. The company also offers tools to automate functions the industry has long managed manually by spreadsheet and to unify and streamline reporting, so executives can rely on a single source of truth when making decisions. The company has been pioneering and perfecting the use of AI in retail forecasting, planning and operations for nearly a decade. Impact Analytics was founded and is led by Prashant Agrawal, a former senior consultant at McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group and current Adjunct Professor at Columbia University who teaches about the use of AI in retail.
To learn more, visit Impact Analytics and follow us on LinkedIn.
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